1/40 killed by war in iraq - 650.000 Irakiens tués depuis 2003, Bush conteste - Ou comment amener la guerre civile dans un pays - AFP/ Lancet

1/40

Une etude publiée sur le Lancet estime a 655 000 le nombre d'Irakiens qui sont morts en conséquence de l'invasion militaire en Irak de Mars 2003 dont 100 000 durant la période de "guerre officielle" de Mars 2003 à Septembre 2004.

C'est un résultat obtenu par un sondage sur le terrain mené dans 1849 quartiers et 12801 individus entre mars et juillet cette année (2006) . La méthode est la même que celle qui a été utilisée pour la guerre du Kosovo par exemple.

Conclusion de l'étude : le nombre de morts par balle et par voiture piégée augmente et celui attribué à la coalition diminue. Le pourcentage de la population tuée par la guerre et ses conséquences ( guerre civile et/ou de religions) atteint les 2,5% soit une personne sur 40

Bravo , Bravissimo Mister Bush. Très beau résultat

Bush réfute évidemment

l'étude du Lancet ( PDF de 242 KiloOctets) en résumé et en anglais :

An estimated 655 000 more Iraqis have died as a consequence of the March 2003 military invasion of Iraq than would have been expected in a non-conflict situation, according to Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey

Summary

Background An excess mortality of nearly 100 000 deaths was reported in Iraq for the period March, 2003–September, 2004, attributed to the invasion of Iraq. Our aim was to update this estimate. Methods Between May and July, 2006, we did a national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq.

50 clusters were randomly selected from 16 Governorates, with every cluster consisting of 40 households. Information on deaths from these households was gathered. Findings Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis;

data from 1849 households that contained 12 801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered.
1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period.

Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5·5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4·3–7·1), compared with 13·3 per 1000 people per year (10·9–16·1) in the 40 months post-invasion.

We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979–942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area.

Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369–793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire.

Interpretation

The number of people dying in Iraq has continued to escalate.

The proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006, although the actual numbers have increased every year.

Gunfire remains the most common cause of death, although deaths from have car bombingincreased.

More info [Here !], the Lancet study is [Here ! ]